Saturday, November 21st, 2009
Fallen Angels and crossover credits are often targeted by alternative investor groups like hedge funds and risk arbitrageurs who speculate on the mispricing between the various financing instruments of a company.
Characteristics of Fallen Angels:
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Friday, October 23rd, 2009
Phase 3 is characterized by high growth and rising leverage, as during the years 1997 to mid-2000. In this period M&A activity was rapidly accelerating, driven by a major focus on the creation of shareholder value. While earnings grew in this period, aggregate measures of corporate profitability like the ratio of after-tax profits of the nonfinancial corporate sector to GDP already declined. Deteriorating free cash flow measures also signaled heightened risk in the corporate sector. As one would generally expect in the expansion phase, equities performed well while credit spreads widened. In general, the high level of debt accumulated during the expansion makes companies vulnerable to economic downturns. Low growth and rising leverage increase the risk of defaults and rating downgrades, and are generally negative for credit as well as equity markets. The years 2000–02 are a typical example for this phase.
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Thursday, October 22nd, 2009
After the 1990/91 recession the US corporate sector underwent a period of massive restructuring. Balance sheet repair, rights issues to repay debt, asset disposals and measures to improve cash flow generation led not only to falling leverage, but also to low earnings growth rates. During this first phase of the debt–equity cycle, the ‘repair phase’ credit usually outperforms equities. It lays the foundation for higher growth rates due to an improved ability to generate cash flows. The subsequent recovery period is beneficial for equity markets as well as credit markets, as the years 1994–97 have shown.
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