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    In the long run credit prices return to their basic values

    Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

    As the previous section has shown, some price effects of trading are temporary, and in an efficient market, in the long run, prices are expected to return to their fundamental values. However, the equilibrium price itself is not a fixed value, but moves with public news and information revealed by the trading process. In this section, we develop models that separate the equilibrium price dynamics from short-term price fluctuations around the equilibrium. Such models can be used, for example, to assess the speed of convergence to the equilibrium after a shock (e.g. a large transaction). The variance of the short-term deviations from the equilibrium price are a measure of market liquidity.

    Finally, in a setting where one asset is traded on several different markets (fragmented trading), the models can be used to assess how informative the trading process is in each market (the contribution to price discovery); this last topic will be dealt with in section 9.4.

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    Low default rates and tight credit spreads.

    Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

    A correlation between total returns of high yield and treasury bonds shows that interest rate risk can certainly not be neglected by high-yield investors. The mid-1990s serve as a good example. High yield and treasury returns had a quite high correlation in an environment of low default rates and tight credit spreads. In 2003 an increased correlation could be observed again when spreads were approaching historical lows and default rates were falling.

    High-yield sensitivity to interest rates is a function of credit risk. This means that the high-yield upper tier (BB/BB) segment’s correlation to 10-year treasuries is higher than for lower tier credit (B and below). Duration management in high-yield portfolios will have a positive performance contribution. Particularly crossover credits and BB’s total returns will be also determined by the movements of interest rates.

    During times of low default rates, historically tight spreads and low interest rates it is worthwhile to analyze the duration contribution of various sectors to the high-yield index. In a scenario of rising interest rates, sectors with tight spreads and a high average duration should be watched closely due to a high underperformance potential.

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    Posted in accounting, attitude, banking, budget analysis, business goals, business patterns, business publications | Comments Off

    Identify relative value between credit asset classes

    Thursday, October 29th, 2009

    One approach to identify relative value between the above-mentioned asset classes is to compare risk premia. For corporate bonds this is equivalent to the spread over government bonds. The comparison versus equities requires the estimation of the equity risk premium, that is the difference between the expected rate of return on the stock market and a risk-free interest rate, usually long-term government bond yields. While there are differences in the sector structure of the equity and corporate bond markets, for example with respect to technology exposure, the equity credit premium may nevertheless provide valuable insights into the relative valuation of both markets. This is because risk factors such as economic growth, risk aversion and implied equity volatility influence both markets in a similar manner.

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    Posted in banking, business patterns, campaigns, credit cards, developers, equity, finances, financial risks | Comments Off