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    Fallen Angels and crossover credits

    Saturday, November 21st, 2009

    131Fallen Angels and crossover credits are often targeted by alternative investor groups like hedge funds and risk arbitrageurs who speculate on the mispricing between the various financing instruments of a company.

    Characteristics of Fallen Angels:

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    Posted in management, merchandise, money spending, negotiationg, online bank, payments, profitability | Comments Off

    Whenever the credit risk premium falls

    Friday, October 30th, 2009

    Whenever the equity risk premium falls below current spread levels, there is a quasi-arbitrage opportunity between corporate bonds and equities. After a long period with a positive equity credit premium, the picture changed in 1999, signaling the height of the equity bubble. The interpretation of this was that expected returns on corporate bonds versus equities were extremely attractive. While corporate bonds actually outperformed equities by far between 2000 and 2002, those years were characterized by a massive widening of credit spreads. Due to the bursting of the tech bubble and the credit spread tightening since fall 2002, the gap has closed.

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    Posted in budget analysis, business goals, finances, financial principles, financial risks, loans, management, merchandise | Comments Off

    A risk premia approach to payday loans

    Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

    The rapid growth of the European corporate bond market since 1997 has promoted the acceptance of corporate bonds as a separate asset class. Therefore, identifying relative value not only between equities and government bonds, but also relative to corporate bonds, has become a central task of asset allocators. But, of course, this analysis is also relevant from the perspective of a pure fixed income investor. Not only does it help to assess the outlook for credit spreads in general, but also to decide on the beta or, in other words, the aggressiveness of a pure corporate bond portfolio relative to its benchmark. Although it has been common use to compare equities and government bonds, it is far less common to compare equities and corporate bonds.

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    Posted in accounting, attitude, banking, equity, expenses, finances, merchandise, money spending, negotiationg | Comments Off

    Corporate and credit bonds can be replicated

    Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

    Remember that corporate bonds can be replicated by the combination of a riskless bond and a short put on the assets of the company. Since lower rated bonds generally are closer to at-the-money than higher rated bonds, it can be expected that the increase of equity-market volatility leads to a widening of the spread differential between issues of different rating classes. This is due to the fact that the sensitivity of the bonds to changes in volatility is different. Options that trade close to at-the-money levels react more strongly given a change in volatility compared with options, which trade far out-of-the-money. The above-described relationships can be witnessed particularly well during crash scenarios in equity markets. In 1990/91, the rise in equity volatility, which was initiated by numerous profit warnings by companies, was a leading indicator of credit spreads.

    The subsequent rise in implied equity-market volatility led to a steepening of the yield differential between high and lower rated credits. Baa and Aa rating classes are chosen to illustrate this relationship because for these rating classes the bond universe offers sufficient breadth and liquidity.

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    Posted in global market, innovative marketing, loans, management, merchandise, money spending, negotiationg | Comments Off

    The correlation between the debt and equity markets

    Monday, October 26th, 2009

    The correlation between the debt and equity markets’ measures of risk has been extremely strong over the recent years. External shocks, for example the tragic events of September 11, 2001, the LTCM disaster in 1998 or the Asian crisis, have a substantial impact on credit spreads as well as on implied equity volatility. Consider the relationship between implied volatility of call options on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, and the spread versus government bonds of the MSCI Euro corporate bond index.

    One way of interpreting implied volatility on an equity index is as the compensation that the investors receive for taking on equity risk. The index of credit spreads represents the additional yield investors demand for holding corporate debt over benchmark government debt. While there have at times been brief periods of divergence, these two risk measures typically move together. For example, in 1993/94 banks in the United States cleaned up their balance sheets by writing down nonperforming assets, causing the VIX index, representing the implied volatility of put and call options on the S&P 100, to fall to a historical low just above 10 percent. The decline in implied equity volatility triggered a credit spread rally. Asimilar thing happened in 2002. Average credit spreads collapsed by half, as did optionimplied volatility. So the decline in volatility was a major driver of credit spread tightening. However, one tends to find that when implied volatility falls below a certain threshold the effect of small changes on spreads is rather subdued.

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    Posted in merchandise, money spending, negotiationg, online bank, payments, profitability, real estate | Comments Off

    Attach a Financial Goal to Your Strategy in business – part 1

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    How are you going to measure your success as a company in financial terms? The most basic measurement is a profit goal. You might also want to set ancillary goals—growth goals, sales goals, or whatever you think would be the best ways to gauge your progress and help you achieve your primary financial goal.

    Then, ask a few hard questions. Is your goal realistic? Is it achievable? Are there ways to leverage the overall goal to achieve the financial goal? If not, one or the other has to be reconsidered.

    Some CEOs seem to set goals according to their sense of business ideals or to really push their workers to the limit. Goals of IS percent profitability and 10 percent growth, for example, may sound great and look great on paper. But are they realistic for your company? Can you actually expect to achieve them? Also, if the overall economy is suffering, 15 percent and 10 percent might be improbable goals even for established companies.

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    Posted in campaigns, financial principles, funds, merchandise, profitability, strategy elements | Comments Off

    Check your goals – part 1

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    The quickest way to shortcut both a strategy and a goal is to specialize: Your company and your product or service are the same. Identify one core goal and go for it. Of course, this approach won’t work for diversified companies, although it should apply within each division.

    Articulate your goals as clearly as possible. For example, the manufacturer who wants to develop three new product lines is more likely to do it than the manufacturer who simply wants to “grow.” The more specific a company can be in setting its goals, researchers have found, the more likely it is it will reach that goal.

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    Posted in business patterns, business publications, financial principles, management, merchandise, research | Comments Off

    How to Plan a Cash Flow – part 2

    Friday, July 31st, 2009

    Beware of rapid growth. Many J companies have grown so fast that demand has outstripped their ability to pay for increasing inventory or improved services to meet the demand. Remember that demand is not cash. A company should not borrow too much on the expectation that, when it meets demand, it can repay the loans.

    Preserving cash flow is one thing and improving market strategies is another. But sometimes the two can work hand-in-hand for even greater benefit. All it requires is a little better management thinking and a clear understanding of the challenges you face.

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    Posted in cash demand, companies, merchandise, online bank, taxes | Comments Off

    How to Plan a Cash Flow – part 1

    Friday, July 31st, 2009

    When planning cash flow needs for a new business, managers should take their best guess and then double it. Then they should plan to spend three times as long moving into a profitable mode. That way they’re less likely to be disappointed. The point: It’s sad but true that being a pessimist is probably more prudent than being an optimist when predicting costs and length of time to profitability.

    Companies should borrow or set up payment plans with suppliers to pay for all of inventory—or at least part of it—and then actually pay for the inventory using funds received from customers paying their bills (otherwise known as paid off accounts receivable).

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    Posted in companies, management, merchandise, money spending, negotiationg | Comments Off

    Anticipating the Contingencies – part 2

    Thursday, July 30th, 2009

    Most suppliers understand that no company can sell from an empty store. Therefore, most suppliers usually work out financing arrangements that take into account when the company gets paid by its own customers. In other words, most suppliers have come to understand that when their customers are paid, they’ll be paid shortly thereafter. Otherwise, suppliers know they’ll get the unpopular merchandise back anyway when the companies close down—and that’s the last thing suppliers want.

    Success can lead to failure if you can’t master cash flow dynamics. If a company can’t keep up with the demand of its customers, it may need to scale down its expectations temporarily and hope to make the most of its growth opportunities later. If a company can’t keep up with payments to its suppliers, it should meet and negotiate, and maybe reduce its purchases in the future. Then it should establish better means of monitoring its cash flow and find ways to operate more efficiently.

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    Posted in developers, finances, management, merchandise, negotiationg | Comments Off