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    In the long run credit prices return to their basic values

    Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

    As the previous section has shown, some price effects of trading are temporary, and in an efficient market, in the long run, prices are expected to return to their fundamental values. However, the equilibrium price itself is not a fixed value, but moves with public news and information revealed by the trading process. In this section, we develop models that separate the equilibrium price dynamics from short-term price fluctuations around the equilibrium. Such models can be used, for example, to assess the speed of convergence to the equilibrium after a shock (e.g. a large transaction). The variance of the short-term deviations from the equilibrium price are a measure of market liquidity.

    Finally, in a setting where one asset is traded on several different markets (fragmented trading), the models can be used to assess how informative the trading process is in each market (the contribution to price discovery); this last topic will be dealt with in section 9.4.

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    A longer term debt–equity cycle

    Saturday, October 24th, 2009

    Credit spreads historically have been negatively correlated with 3-year rolling equity-market returns, as we would have expected from the Merton model. Indeed, there seems to be a longer term debt–equity cycle. But the chart also reveals a significant decoupling of equity and credit during the 1990s. Since equity-market performance alone is only temporarily able to explain variations of credit spreads, we will now analyze the impact of equity volatility on spreads. However, most of the time equity prices and implied volatility tell the same story. When stock prices are falling, demand for protection increases, and thus volatility, which is simply the price of protection, rises. The result is a strong negative correlation between equity prices and option-implied volatility. Yet the times, when both markets tell different stories, are the most interesting.

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    Posted in finances, financial principles, financial risks, funds, global market, innovative marketing, loans | Comments Off

    A Good Reason to Have a Business Plan – part 2

    Monday, August 3rd, 2009

    The best business plans tend to look like a truck ran them over. They are well-thumbed, heavily annotated, and popping their staples or bursting their bindings. That means they’re being used. The worst plans are clean, pristine documents that went straight from the printer into the file cabinet. That means they’re not being used. That may mean that nobody needs them, which might suggest that the company is continuing to follow the same old routes to get to the same destinations. Or it might mean the business plan isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on for those who should be following it. Either way, the company may be in serious trouble.

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    Identify the Steps to Reach the Financial Goal – part 2

    Monday, August 3rd, 2009

    That’s good—as a beginning. Now, you need to get into details, by asking a few questions and coining up with solid answers:

    Of course, you may want to set ancillary goals in each of these areas. But beware of goals that set department against department, worker against worker. For example, goals for marketing, which are measured in terms of sales, might cause resentment if there are other factors that could affect sales—just as sales goals might not be met because an improvement in efficiency caused a drop in the quality of the products the sales reps are trying to sell.

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    Attach a Financial Goal to Your Strategy in business – part 1

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    How are you going to measure your success as a company in financial terms? The most basic measurement is a profit goal. You might also want to set ancillary goals—growth goals, sales goals, or whatever you think would be the best ways to gauge your progress and help you achieve your primary financial goal.

    Then, ask a few hard questions. Is your goal realistic? Is it achievable? Are there ways to leverage the overall goal to achieve the financial goal? If not, one or the other has to be reconsidered.

    Some CEOs seem to set goals according to their sense of business ideals or to really push their workers to the limit. Goals of IS percent profitability and 10 percent growth, for example, may sound great and look great on paper. But are they realistic for your company? Can you actually expect to achieve them? Also, if the overall economy is suffering, 15 percent and 10 percent might be improbable goals even for established companies.

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    Identify your competition

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    Identify your competition. This may seem obvious, but it’s not necessarily a simple task. For example, if you decide to start a magazine for the local business community, who are your competitors? If your answer is there are no other business magazines around, then you don’t understand the question. Maybe the local newspaper has a regular section devoted to business. That’s competition for coverage. Do you intend to sell ads? If so, you’re competing for advertising money with newspapers, radio, TV, and billboards. Do you intend to sell subscriptions? If so, then you’re competing for customer money, time, and loyalty with national business publications, and to a great extent, with any subscription publication. This example should show that identifying your competition can be far from simple.

    Pick out the two or three major advantages your company has that set it apart from your competitors. An accounting firm, for example, might have experience with not-for-profit businesses. Such a market advantage becomes a cornerstone of the firm’s business strategy.

    Some people call that particular segment of a specific economy a “niche.” It’s the slice of the dollar pie your business hopes to claim; that piece of the public consciousness you want to capture and hold. You need to understand what chunk of turf you want to stake out, or success in doing so will be primarily a matter of luck.

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    Good business requires good plan

    Friday, July 31st, 2009

    Most enterprises have something called a strategy. Invading armies have one. Football teams have one. In most cases, just having a strategy may mean the difference between success and failure.

    More than any other enterprise, a business needs a strategy. Why? Well, just consider what you’re trying to do and what you’re up against. You’re trying to get a share of the dollars out there. You’re competing with businesses that provide similar goods or services, yes, but also with any business at all, because the amount of dollars is limited. You’re risking economic changes as well—not only downturns that could threaten your financial stability and growth, but also upturns that could favor competitors ready and able to capitalize on them, especially if you’re not prepared. Then there are the other dangers, such as the potential loss of vital financial support, a key manager, or a valuable employee. Then, toss in the reaction of customers, which might mean a lawsuit that could sap your resources and damage your public image.

    So, every company is facing tough challenges. That’s why every company needs a strategy. That’s often the key to a company’s financial success. Without an overall strategy, you’re less likely to meet your financial goals.

    Even if you’re not responsible for running your company, you must first grasp the overall concept behind what the top managers are doing, just to be able to properly manage any part of that company. If you don’t understand the strategy behind the company, how much can you help it succeed?

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    Posted in business patterns, business strategy, companies, funds, negotiationg | Comments Off

    When and How to Cut Costs – part 2

    Friday, July 31st, 2009

    Looking for ways to decrease operational costs runs hand-in-hand with looking for new and better ways to manage operations. Can the sales team cut down on the number of personal calls by making regular telephone contact instead? In addition to saving sales call time and money spent on automobile wear and tear, the new approach might give a definite market advantage by allowing staff to make more frequent contact. Done correctly, this can translate into better service at a lower cost. Then everyone benefits.

    Inventory can be a cash eater if it isn’t financed. The company should pay the interest required to finance the inventory and keep its cash at hand. The company may need it. To make this clearer: In buying a car, you might have the funds to pay for it in cash, but by financing it, you keep your funds available in case you need them for some situation where it’s more difficult to borrow money than to use your cash. Of course, the company should also better control inventory quantities, to minimize its cash investment.

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    Posted in business patterns, cash demand, companies, funds | Comments Off