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    Low default rates and tight credit spreads.

    Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

    A correlation between total returns of high yield and treasury bonds shows that interest rate risk can certainly not be neglected by high-yield investors. The mid-1990s serve as a good example. High yield and treasury returns had a quite high correlation in an environment of low default rates and tight credit spreads. In 2003 an increased correlation could be observed again when spreads were approaching historical lows and default rates were falling.

    High-yield sensitivity to interest rates is a function of credit risk. This means that the high-yield upper tier (BB/BB) segment’s correlation to 10-year treasuries is higher than for lower tier credit (B and below). Duration management in high-yield portfolios will have a positive performance contribution. Particularly crossover credits and BB’s total returns will be also determined by the movements of interest rates.

    During times of low default rates, historically tight spreads and low interest rates it is worthwhile to analyze the duration contribution of various sectors to the high-yield index. In a scenario of rising interest rates, sectors with tight spreads and a high average duration should be watched closely due to a high underperformance potential.

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    Posted in accounting, attitude, banking, budget analysis, business goals, business patterns, business publications | Comments Off

    When massive crdit restructuring occurs

    Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

    After the 1990/91 recession the US corporate sector underwent a period of massive restructuring. Balance sheet repair, rights issues to repay debt, asset disposals and measures to improve cash flow generation led not only to falling leverage, but also to low earnings growth rates. During this first phase of the debt–equity cycle, the ‘repair phase’ credit usually outperforms equities. It lays the foundation for higher growth rates due to an improved ability to generate cash flows. The subsequent recovery period is beneficial for equity markets as well as credit markets, as the years 1994–97 have shown.

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    Web relationships get tangled

    Monday, October 5th, 2009

    Many investors try to avoid these troublesome relationships by using online brokers. Online investing is promoted as fun. Chat rooms, IPOs, after-hours trading, 24-hour research: The message is: meet interesting people and make quick, easy money. The results are not any better than using a live-body broker.

    Studies show switching to low-commission, online brokers leads to overconfidence. Stocks are bought and sold online in seconds. Online research takes hours if done quickly, days and weeks if done properly. Online investors skip the research and go directly to the trading page. This causes excessive trading, which quickly adds up to excess commissions, large spreads, great unhappiness, and poor results. A few investors become addicted to trading.

    Investors using online brokers often turn to chat rooms to get comfort during volatile markets. Chat rooms are full of investors trying to promote their own shares. Their agenda is to get you out of your shares and into theirs at ever-higher prices. Rumors and mass hysteria are treated as fact in chat rooms. Your gullibility will hurt you.

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    Posted in business publications, money spending, strategy elements | Comments Off

    Building a Business Plan – part 1

    Monday, August 3rd, 2009

    A wiling plan is a perpetual motion engine for your business vehicle. Once you finish the first year in your plan, you add another year to the end of the plan, so the company always is looking five years ahead. Not only does this ensure greater continuity of vision, but it also spares managers the enormous task of creating subsequent five-year plans.

    Defining a sound strategy is vital preparation for success. But even the best strategy will fail without a good business plan to put it to work. The strategy is the idea behind the business, but the business plan is the first of many tools by which that idea will turn into actions.

    The business plan is the where, when, how, and why of what a company must do to implement its strategy. It’s just that simple—and that difficult.

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    Attach a Financial Goal to Your Strategy in business – part 2

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    It’s possible to plan on the low side, of course, to set a financial goal that your company can reach easily. That may be a good idea for some new companies, allowing them to focus on building a solid foundation rather than stretching to meet a higher goal. But if the economy is generally good, easy goals can promote lax attitudes, keeping your company from becoming truly competitive. Then, if the economy starts to decline…

    The bottom line here: Know your company and then set an appropriate financial goal.

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    The characteristics of strategies in successful businesses – part 2

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    Do the elements of your strategy make sense? Do they define the direction in which your company wants to go? Do they sound forced or contrived or simplistic? Or are these elements that can guide your company toward success?

    If the strategy doesn’t sound right spoken aloud, it’s time to start over. If it makes sense and if it could make sense to any new employee, that means your business likely is on the right track in developing its business plan.

    Strategies are important, but never mistake strategizing for acting. The best strategy in the world is no strategy if action isn’t built into the plan. There are companies that spend a lot of time meeting and working out strategies, but not moving on to map out a plan of action. You’re not likely to have heard of them, of course. Wonder why?

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    The characteristics of strategies in successful businesses – part 1

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    After you’ve defined your business strategy, you should test the elements of that strategy. There are many ways to do so, but there’s one simple test that can be tried without fear or risk:

    Say the company’s goals aloud.

    Strategies are important, but never mistake strategizing for acting. The best strategy in the world is no strategy if action isn’t built into the plan. There are companies that spend a lot of time meeting and working out strategies, but not moving on to map out a plan of action. You’re not likely to have heard of them, of course. Wonder why?

    This can be done as part of a meeting of the board of directors, in the executive suite, or even in the privacy of the department manager’s office. Identify the internal elements of the strategy and say them aloud. Some business people refer to this approach as “Run it up the flagpole and see who salutes.” But at this point you don’t want acceptance and allegiance—you want critical thinking and tough questions. It’s time to test, not to salute.

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    Check your goals – part 2

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    Identify the key steps toward the goal. Knowing the steps the company needs to take to reach its goal is as important as identifying the goal itself. Sometimes entrepreneurs trust too much in their enthusiasm and spirit. That may be enough to motivate their employees, but leaders must plan their campaigns.

    So, to sum it all up, you should know what you’re doing (your business) and how you’re doing it (your philosophy). You should recognize who else is out there in your way (your competitors) and decide what sets you ahead of them (your major advantages). Then, you determine where you want to go with your business (your goals) and how you intend to get there (your key steps). All of that forms your business strategy.

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    Check your goals – part 1

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    The quickest way to shortcut both a strategy and a goal is to specialize: Your company and your product or service are the same. Identify one core goal and go for it. Of course, this approach won’t work for diversified companies, although it should apply within each division.

    Articulate your goals as clearly as possible. For example, the manufacturer who wants to develop three new product lines is more likely to do it than the manufacturer who simply wants to “grow.” The more specific a company can be in setting its goals, researchers have found, the more likely it is it will reach that goal.

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    Posted in business patterns, business publications, financial principles, management, merchandise, research | Comments Off

    Identify your competition

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    Identify your competition. This may seem obvious, but it’s not necessarily a simple task. For example, if you decide to start a magazine for the local business community, who are your competitors? If your answer is there are no other business magazines around, then you don’t understand the question. Maybe the local newspaper has a regular section devoted to business. That’s competition for coverage. Do you intend to sell ads? If so, you’re competing for advertising money with newspapers, radio, TV, and billboards. Do you intend to sell subscriptions? If so, then you’re competing for customer money, time, and loyalty with national business publications, and to a great extent, with any subscription publication. This example should show that identifying your competition can be far from simple.

    Pick out the two or three major advantages your company has that set it apart from your competitors. An accounting firm, for example, might have experience with not-for-profit businesses. Such a market advantage becomes a cornerstone of the firm’s business strategy.

    Some people call that particular segment of a specific economy a “niche.” It’s the slice of the dollar pie your business hopes to claim; that piece of the public consciousness you want to capture and hold. You need to understand what chunk of turf you want to stake out, or success in doing so will be primarily a matter of luck.

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