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    Low default rates and tight credit spreads.

    Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

    A correlation between total returns of high yield and treasury bonds shows that interest rate risk can certainly not be neglected by high-yield investors. The mid-1990s serve as a good example. High yield and treasury returns had a quite high correlation in an environment of low default rates and tight credit spreads. In 2003 an increased correlation could be observed again when spreads were approaching historical lows and default rates were falling.

    High-yield sensitivity to interest rates is a function of credit risk. This means that the high-yield upper tier (BB/BB) segment’s correlation to 10-year treasuries is higher than for lower tier credit (B and below). Duration management in high-yield portfolios will have a positive performance contribution. Particularly crossover credits and BB’s total returns will be also determined by the movements of interest rates.

    During times of low default rates, historically tight spreads and low interest rates it is worthwhile to analyze the duration contribution of various sectors to the high-yield index. In a scenario of rising interest rates, sectors with tight spreads and a high average duration should be watched closely due to a high underperformance potential.

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    Identify relative value between credit asset classes

    Thursday, October 29th, 2009

    One approach to identify relative value between the above-mentioned asset classes is to compare risk premia. For corporate bonds this is equivalent to the spread over government bonds. The comparison versus equities requires the estimation of the equity risk premium, that is the difference between the expected rate of return on the stock market and a risk-free interest rate, usually long-term government bond yields. While there are differences in the sector structure of the equity and corporate bond markets, for example with respect to technology exposure, the equity credit premium may nevertheless provide valuable insights into the relative valuation of both markets. This is because risk factors such as economic growth, risk aversion and implied equity volatility influence both markets in a similar manner.

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    When massive crdit restructuring occurs

    Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

    After the 1990/91 recession the US corporate sector underwent a period of massive restructuring. Balance sheet repair, rights issues to repay debt, asset disposals and measures to improve cash flow generation led not only to falling leverage, but also to low earnings growth rates. During this first phase of the debt–equity cycle, the ‘repair phase’ credit usually outperforms equities. It lays the foundation for higher growth rates due to an improved ability to generate cash flows. The subsequent recovery period is beneficial for equity markets as well as credit markets, as the years 1994–97 have shown.

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    Building a Business Plan – part 2

    Monday, August 3rd, 2009

    The business plan offers general and specific guidance on reaching company goals. It outlines actions. It also separates the dreamers from the doers. It is often the great equalizer between the enthusiastic idea generators and the serious business people who will accomplish their dreams.

    Business plans are usually annual, based on the fiscal year. But there also are multiple-year plans—the most common of which is the five-year plan.

    An annual plan is operational and necessary to manage the company’s economic needs for the coming year. A five-year plan is more strategic and designed to chart the firm’s direction. In addition, five-year plans should be rolling plans.

    The thinking behind a rolling five-year plan can be applied to other cyclical planning, such as the annual budget process or the marketing schedule. When May ends, for example, the managers can study the forecasts for that month and the results, determine the reasons behind the variances, then use their findings to shape a budget for the following May. Rolling plans allow managers to make the most of their budget analyses, provide greater continuity, and ease the burden of annual planning.

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    Attach a Financial Goal to Your Strategy in business – part 2

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    It’s possible to plan on the low side, of course, to set a financial goal that your company can reach easily. That may be a good idea for some new companies, allowing them to focus on building a solid foundation rather than stretching to meet a higher goal. But if the economy is generally good, easy goals can promote lax attitudes, keeping your company from becoming truly competitive. Then, if the economy starts to decline…

    The bottom line here: Know your company and then set an appropriate financial goal.

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    The characteristics of strategies in successful businesses – part 2

    Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

    Do the elements of your strategy make sense? Do they define the direction in which your company wants to go? Do they sound forced or contrived or simplistic? Or are these elements that can guide your company toward success?

    If the strategy doesn’t sound right spoken aloud, it’s time to start over. If it makes sense and if it could make sense to any new employee, that means your business likely is on the right track in developing its business plan.

    Strategies are important, but never mistake strategizing for acting. The best strategy in the world is no strategy if action isn’t built into the plan. There are companies that spend a lot of time meeting and working out strategies, but not moving on to map out a plan of action. You’re not likely to have heard of them, of course. Wonder why?

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    Check your goals – part 1

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    The quickest way to shortcut both a strategy and a goal is to specialize: Your company and your product or service are the same. Identify one core goal and go for it. Of course, this approach won’t work for diversified companies, although it should apply within each division.

    Articulate your goals as clearly as possible. For example, the manufacturer who wants to develop three new product lines is more likely to do it than the manufacturer who simply wants to “grow.” The more specific a company can be in setting its goals, researchers have found, the more likely it is it will reach that goal.

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    know your business and identify the philosophy behind the company

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    Here are some steps that should help you develop your business strategy:

    Know your business. This seems basic, but it’s the most often forgotten step along the road to business success. Were railroads in the business of being railroads or part of the transportation industry? There’s a distinct difference between the two and a distinct difference in the psychology and strategy that awareness will bring to the business. It’s important, as we noted earlier, when you’re defining your philosophy, identifying your competition, and finding your niche. But it’s just as important when you’re determining how you’re going to achieve your goals.

    Identify the philosophy behind your company’s way of doing business. If it’s a service business, articulate how important that service is to the overall goal. If the company makes products, define the purpose and goal each product line has for the company.

    Is there a level of quality or production time important to success? If so, that must be part of the strategy.

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    Everything starts with a sound business strategy

    Saturday, August 1st, 2009

    Developing a strategy and, subsequently, building a business plan based on that strategy are critical to developing the sound financial strategies.

    Companies that take the time at the start to define a strategy and then build their business plan around it improve their chances for greater financial success. And department managers have an obligation to help build that success by understanding the strategy and their part in making it work—through the strategy each defines for his or her department.

    Although you may not actually be involved (yet!) in forming your company’s strategy, the following discussion will put you there among the movers and shakers who determine that strategy. Then you’ll better understand the principles behind a business strategy.

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    Good business requires good plan

    Friday, July 31st, 2009

    Most enterprises have something called a strategy. Invading armies have one. Football teams have one. In most cases, just having a strategy may mean the difference between success and failure.

    More than any other enterprise, a business needs a strategy. Why? Well, just consider what you’re trying to do and what you’re up against. You’re trying to get a share of the dollars out there. You’re competing with businesses that provide similar goods or services, yes, but also with any business at all, because the amount of dollars is limited. You’re risking economic changes as well—not only downturns that could threaten your financial stability and growth, but also upturns that could favor competitors ready and able to capitalize on them, especially if you’re not prepared. Then there are the other dangers, such as the potential loss of vital financial support, a key manager, or a valuable employee. Then, toss in the reaction of customers, which might mean a lawsuit that could sap your resources and damage your public image.

    So, every company is facing tough challenges. That’s why every company needs a strategy. That’s often the key to a company’s financial success. Without an overall strategy, you’re less likely to meet your financial goals.

    Even if you’re not responsible for running your company, you must first grasp the overall concept behind what the top managers are doing, just to be able to properly manage any part of that company. If you don’t understand the strategy behind the company, how much can you help it succeed?

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